Old ranking: severity × pool × bower_score. That put LayerZero ($15M) and GMX+Morpho ($10M) near the top by expected value. V13 breaks that model with six new analytical layers:
Result: EigenLayer cascade (SUB006) rises to KCF 10 despite "only" $5M+ pool. LayerZero (SUB001, $15M) falls to KCF 6 — large pool, shallow depth, no cascade amplifier.
| Dimension | Points | Condition |
|---|---|---|
| Base Score | +0→8.3 | bower_score/10. CRITICAL bower=83→base 8.3, HIGH=67→6.7, MEDIUM=50→5.0 |
| Severity Bonus | +2 / +1 | +2 if CRITICAL, +1 if HIGH |
| Cascade Amplifier | +1 | TORNADO ORBIT tag — systemic cascade (one failure triggers many) |
| Actuarial Tail Event | +1 | Cascade slashing, solvency breach, reserve depletion — actuarial tail present |
| ME-COLI L4/L5 | +1 | Attack compromises metabolic (L4) or regulatory (L5) sovereignty layer |
| VSM S4 Intel Attack | +1 | Compromises S4 intelligence layer (oracle = protocol's PEMCLAU analog) |
| IT Attack Signal | +1 | Transfer entropy attack, entropy injection, MI threshold breach |
| Sorry Unresolvable | −1 | No PoC, requires off-chain data that can't be obtained — sorry blocks filing |
| Sub | Name | Sev | Pool | Bower | +Cascade | +ME-COLI | +VSM | +IT | KCF V13 | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SUB006 | EigenLayer Cascade | CRITICAL | $5M+ | 83 | +1 | +1(L4) | +1(S3) | — | 10 | +0.5 |
| SUB009 | GMX FastPrice Oracle | HIGH | $10M | 67 | — | — | +1(S4) | +1 | 9 | +1 |
| SUB003 | Wormhole Finality | HIGH | $2.5M | 67 | — | +1(L2) | +1(S2) | — | 9 | +1 |
| SUB005 | Aave Sequencer Liq | HIGH | $1.5M | 67 | — | +1(L4) | +1(S3) | — | 8 | +0.5 |
| SUB012 | Ethena Solvency | HIGH | $1M | 67 | — | +1(L5) | — | +1 | 8 | +1 |
| SUB010 | Symbiotic Resolver | HIGH | $1.75M | 67 | — | — | +1(S2) | — | 7 | — |
| SUB007 | Lido Oracle Lag | HIGH | $2M | 67 | — | — | +1(S4) | — | 7 | — |
| SUB001 | LayerZero DVN | MEDIUM | $15M | 50 | — | +1(L2) | +1(S2) | — | 6 | +1 |
| SUB011 | GMX+Morpho Comp | MEDIUM | $10M | 50 | — | — | — | — | 5 | — |
| SUB002 | OFT Fee Mismatch | MEDIUM | $15M | 50 | — | — | — | — | 5 | — |
| SUB004 | MakerDAO L2 | MEDIUM | $10M | 50 | — | — | — | — | 5 | — |
| SUB008 | Compound L2 Stale | MEDIUM | $1M | 50 | — | — | — | — | 4 | — |
| Finding | Case Reserve | IBNR | EV (P*Pool*Bounty%) | Validation P | Portfolio Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SUB006 EigenLayer | $250K | $750K | $255K | 0.30 | IBNR dominant — reserve adequacy: need $1M |
| SUB009 GMX Oracle | $325K | $162K | $325K | 0.65 | EV positive — $10M pool, largest case reserve |
| SUB003 Wormhole | $50K | $300K | $75K | 0.55 | Low pool, strong doc — IBNR from 6 similar bridges |
| SUB005 Aave Seq. | $75K | $150K | $112K | 0.60 | Incident history confirmed — E. coli school = file fast |
| SUB012 Ethena | $45K | $90K | $60K | 0.50 | Actuarial oframe unique — Panjer+Smith-Wilson novel |
| PORTFOLIO TOTAL | $745K | $1.45M | $827K | — | SOLVENT: EV $827K > Case Reserve $745K |
| Finding | If Rejected: Basin | PEMCLAU Ingest | Domain Enriched |
|---|---|---|---|
| SUB006 EigenLayer | /ssaf-domain-slashing | mebafiord=SEC, tag=CASCADE_SLASHING, school=LAB | Slashing domain knowledge enriched |
| SUB009 GMX Oracle | /ssaf-domain-oracle | mebafiord=SEC, tag=ORACLE_SPREAD_GAMING, school=ACETIC | Oracle domain: TE attack patterns |
| SUB003 Wormhole | /ssaf-domain-finality | mebafiord=SEC, tag=BRIDGE_FINALITY_RACE, school=LAB | Finality domain: guardian consensus data |
| SUB005 Aave | /ssaf-domain-liquidation | mebafiord=SEC, tag=SEQUENCER_BURST, school=ECOLI | Liquidation domain: burst patterns |
| SUB012 Ethena | /ssaf-domain-solvency | mebafiord=SEC, tag=SOLVENCY_DELTA, school=ACETIC | Solvency domain: actuarial reserve data |