⚙️ KCF — Key Compromise Factors
Guardian set size19 keys
Quorum required13/19 (68.4%)
Keys needed to attack13 (during rotation)
C(19,13) combinations27,132
Window doubles combos54,264 (both sets)
Expiry hardcoded86400s (no gov param)
Historical rotations≥4 observed
Old-set key hygieneUnknown — no enforcement
KCF score (1=safe)0.31 — HIGH RISK
🔗 COI — Chain of Impact
Attack triggersubmitNewGuardianSet()
Observable on-chain?YES — public tx
Detection window0s (instant)
Fraudulent VAA targetToken Bridge mint()
Chains affectedAll Wormhole chains
TVL at risk$1B+ historical
Pause mechanism?Partial (NTT only)
Governance protection?None during window
COI severityCRITICAL — direct theft
📊 ACTUARIAL — Risk Quantification
Rotation frequency~1/year observed
Window per rotation86,400s = 24h
Annual exposure (s)86,400s/yr
P(compromise 13 keys)Low-medium (nation-state)
Expected loss (EL)P × TVL = $50M+ tail
Attack costHigh (13 keys) but feasible
Severity × LikelihoodCRITICAL (5×4 = 20/25)
γ₁ distance1.30 — WALL zone
Immunefi payout est.$50K–$2.5M Critical